China NBS Non Manufacturing PMI

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Latest Release:

Surprise:

CNY-0.3

CNY

Actual:

50.4

Forecast: 50.7

Previous/Revision:

50.8

Period: Apr 2025

Next Release:

Forecast:

Period: May 2025

What Does It Measure?

The China NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI measures the level of activity within China's service and construction sectors, offering a vital snapshot of economic health outside the manufacturing realm. A PMI above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 signals contraction, making it a key national indicator of China's broader economic conditions.

Frequency

This report is released monthly, typically during the first week of the month, and it is often issued as a final figure without subsequent revisions.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the Non-Manufacturing PMI as it provides insights into the state of China's economy, influencing expectations for economic growth and monetary policy. Positive or unexpectedly high figures tend to be bullish for the Chinese yuan and stocks, while weaker figures might exert downward pressure on these assets.

What Is It Derived From?

The indicator is derived from monthly surveys conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), collecting responses from purchasing managers in the service and construction sectors. It employs a diffusion index, reflecting the percentage of positive responses as an indicator of sectorial health.

Description

The NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI report stands as a crucial tool for assessing the performance of China's services sector, a predominant part of its economy. As preliminary estimates are not released separately, the final data offers the most accurate and reliable measure. Services and construction sectors' health, captured distinctly by this PMI, help gauge the economy's adaptability against policy changes or external pressures, making the reading significant across financial markets.

Additional Notes

This PMI acts as a leading indicator, reflecting future economic activity ahead of official GDP figures. It is frequently compared with other global non-manufacturing PMIs to assess China's relative economic strength or weakness.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for the Yuan, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for the Yuan, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the ‘Actual’ value differs enough from the forecast or if the ‘Previous’ value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the ‘Actual’ deviates from the forecast or there’s a notable revision to the ‘Previous’ value.

Medium Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there’s an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency.

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Apr 30, 2025	50.4	50.7	50.8	-0.3
Mar 31, 2025	50.8	50.5	50.4	0.3
Mar 01, 2025	50.4	50.3	50.2	0.1
Jan 27, 2025	50.2	51.8	52.2	-1.6
Dec 31, 2024	52.2	50.2	50	2
Nov 30, 2024	50	50.2	50.2	-0.2
Oct 31, 2024	50.2	50.4	50	-0.2
Sep 30, 2024	50	50.4	50.3	-0.4
Aug 31, 2024	50.3	50	50.2	0.3
Jul 31, 2024	50.2	50.2	50.5
Jun 30, 2024	50.5	51	51.1	-0.5
May 31, 2024	51.1	51.5	51.2	-0.4
Apr 30, 2024	51.2	52.2	53	-1
Mar 31, 2024	53	52	51.4	1
Mar 01, 2024	51.4	50.8	50.7	0.6
Jan 31, 2024	50.7	50.6	50.4	0.1
Dec 31, 2023	50.4	50.3	50.2	0.1
Nov 30, 2023	50.2	51.5	50.6	-1.3
Oct 31, 2023	50.6	51.8	51.7	-1.2
Sep 30, 2023	51.7	52	51	-0.3
Aug 31, 2023	51	51.1	51.5	-0.1
Jul 31, 2023	51.5	52.9	53.2	-1.4
Jun 30, 2023	53.2	53	54.5	0.2
May 31, 2023	54.5	55	56.4	-0.5
Apr 30, 2023	56.4	58.3	58.2	-1.9
Mar 31, 2023	58.2	54.9	56.3	3.3
Mar 01, 2023	56.3	55	54.4	1.3
Jan 31, 2023	54.4	47.3	41.6	7.1
Dec 31, 2022	41.6	48.4	46.7	-6.8
Nov 30, 2022	46.7	49	48.7	-2.3
Oct 31, 2022	48.7	50.5	50.6	-1.8
Sep 30, 2022	50.6	52.8	52.6	-2.2
Aug 31, 2022	52.6	52	53.8	0.6
Jul 31, 2022	53.8	55.6	54.7	-1.8
May 31, 2022	47.8	45	41.9	2.8
Apr 30, 2022	41.9	48	48.4	-6.1
Mar 31, 2022	48.4	50.2	51.6	-1.8
Mar 01, 2022	51.6	51.5	51.1	0.1
Jan 30, 2022	51.1	52.5	52.7	-1.4
Dec 31, 2021	52.7	52.5	52.3	0.2
Nov 30, 2021	52.3	52	52.4	0.3
Oct 31, 2021	52.4	53	53.2	-0.6
Sep 30, 2021	53.2	50	47.5	3.2
Aug 31, 2021	47.5	53	53.3	-5.5
Jul 31, 2021	53.3	53	53.5	0.3
Jun 30, 2021	53.5	55	55.2	-1.5
May 31, 2021	55.2	54	54.9	1.2
Apr 30, 2021	54.9	56.5	56.3	-1.6
Mar 31, 2021	56.3	51.9	51.4	4.4
Feb 28, 2021	51.4	52	52.4	-0.6
Jan 31, 2021	52.4	55.4	55.7	-3
Dec 31, 2020	55.7	56	56.4	-0.3
Nov 30, 2020	56.4	55.7	56.2	0.7
Oct 31, 2020	56.2	55.2	55.9	1
Sep 30, 2020	55.9	54.9	55.2	1
Aug 31, 2020	55.2	54	54.2	1.2
Jul 31, 2020	54.2	54.1	54.4	0.1
Jun 30, 2020	54.4	52.1	53.6	2.3
May 31, 2020	53.6	52.5	53.2	1.1
Apr 30, 2020	53.2	45.1	52.3	8.1
Mar 31, 2020	52.3	40.4	29.6	11.9
Feb 29, 2020	29.6	47	54.1	-17.4
Jan 31, 2020	54.1	53.5	53.5	0.6
Dec 31, 2019	53.5	53.6	54.4	-0.1
Nov 30, 2019	54.4	53.6	52.8	0.8
Oct 31, 2019	52.8	53.9	53.7	-1.1
Sep 30, 2019	53.7	54.2	53.8	-0.5
Aug 31, 2019	53.8	53.6	53.7	0.2
Jul 31, 2019	53.7	54	54.2	-0.3
Jun 30, 2019	54.2	54.5	54.3	-0.3
May 31, 2019	54.3	54.3	54.3
Apr 30, 2019	54.3	54.5	54.8	-0.2
Mar 31, 2019	54.8	54.1	54.3	0.7
Feb 28, 2019	54.3	54.5	54.7	-0.2
Jan 31, 2019	54.7	53.9	53.8	0.8
Dec 31, 2018	53.8	53	53.4	0.8
Nov 30, 2018	53.4	53.8	53.9	-0.4
Oct 31, 2018	53.9	54.9	54.9	-1
Sep 30, 2018	54.9	54.8	54.2	0.1
Aug 31, 2018	54.2	53.8	54	0.4
Jul 31, 2018	54	55	55	-1
Jun 30, 2018	55	54.7	54.9	0.3
May 31, 2018	54.9	54.8	54.8	0.1
Apr 30, 2018	54.8	54.6	54.6	0.2
Mar 31, 2018	54.6	54.1	54.4	0.5
Feb 28, 2018	54.4	55	55.3	-0.6
Jan 31, 2018	55.3	55	55	0.3
Dec 31, 2017	55	54.9	54.8	0.1
Nov 30, 2017	54.8	54.3	54.3	0.5
Oct 31, 2017	54.3	55	55.4	-0.7
Sep 30, 2017	55.4	53.8	53.4	1.6
Aug 31, 2017	53.4	54.6	54.5	-1.2
Jul 31, 2017	54.5	54.5	54.9
Jun 30, 2017	54.9	54.6	54.5	0.3
May 31, 2017	54.5	54.1	54	0.4
Apr 30, 2017	54	55	55.1	-1
Mar 31, 2017	55.1	54.3	54.2	0.8
Mar 01, 2017	54.2	54.5	54.6	-0.3
Feb 01, 2017	54.6	54.4	54.5	0.2
Jan 01, 2017	54.5	54.4	54.7	0.1
Dec 01, 2016	54.7	53.8	54	0.9
Nov 01, 2016	54	52.9	53.7	1.1
Oct 01, 2016	53.7	52.5	53.5	1.2
Sep 01, 2016	53.5	52.7	53.9	0.8
Aug 01, 2016	53.9	52.9	53.7	1
Jul 01, 2016	53.7	53	53.1	0.7
Jun 01, 2016	53.1	53.2	53.5	-0.1
May 01, 2016	53.5	54	53.8	-0.5
Apr 01, 2016	53.8	53.13	52.7	0.67
Mar 01, 2016	52.7	54.5	53.5	-1.8
Feb 01, 2016	53.5	54.6	54.4	-1.1
Jan 01, 2016	54.4	53.49	53.6	0.91
Dec 01, 2015	53.6	53.1	53.1	0.5
Nov 01, 2015	53.1	53.3	53.4	-0.2
Oct 01, 2015	53.4	53.44	53.4	-0.04
Sep 01, 2015	53.4	53.85	53.9	-0.45
Aug 01, 2015	53.9	52.79	53.8	1.11
Jul 01, 2015	53.8	53.21	53.2	0.59
Jun 01, 2015	53.2	53.94	53.4	-0.74
May 01, 2015	53.4	53.59	53.7	-0.19